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In this fun paper, it is pointed out that homology is a very basic invariant, and closed manifolds are very basic objects and so a very basic question is: what sequences of abelian groups are the homology groups of a closed simply connected manifold? It isn’t very hard to realize […]

I’m again applying Granger causality to time series data from Intrade. This time, however, I connect box A to box B with a green arrow if A becoming more likely causes B to become more likely, and with a red arrow if A becoming more likely causes B to become less likely. Shorter arrows suggest stronger […]

Granger causality is a technique for determining whether one time series can be used to forecast another; since the Intrade market provides time series data for political questions, we can look at whether political outcomes can be used to forecast other political outcomes. There’s a library for the statistical package R to do the Granger test, […]