Granger causality is a technique for determining whether one time series can be used to forecast another; since the Intrade market provides time series data for political questions, we can look at whether political outcomes can be used to forecast other political outcomes. There’s a library for the statistical package R to do the Granger test, […]

Here are some very ill-thought-out ideas on Kolmogorov complexity. We define a metric on the space of bit-strings . For a universal Turing machine , let be the “length” of the shortest program that outputs on input , or outputs on input . This should measure how difficult it is to […]