I’m again applying Granger causality to time series data from Intrade. This time, however, I connect box A to box B with a green arrow if A becoming more likely causes B to become more likely, and with a red arrow if A becoming more likely causes B to become less likely. Shorter arrows suggest stronger […]

Granger causality is a technique for determining whether one time series can be used to forecast another; since the Intrade market provides time series data for political questions, we can look at whether political outcomes can be used to forecast other political outcomes. There’s a library for the statistical package R to do the Granger test, […]